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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast region. An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. ...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia... Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms -- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability (aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe convection. However, with a wind field in place that would otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the period. ..Goss.. 01/05/2025 Read more

MD 0007 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...east-central Missouri...parts of southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and parts of central Kentucky. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 051327Z - 051730Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected this morning. DISCUSSION...Light to moderate snowfall has developed within a swath from central Missouri to central Kentucky this morning with a few heavy snow observations appearing recently in southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Expect moderate to heavy snow in a relatively narrow corridor north of the freezing rain from east-central Missouri to parts of central Kentucky. In addition to the radar depiction and surface observations indicating heavy snow, the 12Z HRRR shows a swath of significant accumulation between 13Z and 17Z. By midday much of this area will switch to freezing rain with the heavy snow swath shifted farther north during the afternoon as warm air advection strengthens ahead of the approaching surface low. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 39499336 39539107 39158827 38458601 37838508 37228527 37158559 38248806 38799238 38929316 39109347 39499336 Read more

MD 0006 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...northeast Kansas into west-central Missouri Concerning...Blizzard Valid 051251Z - 051715Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates and winds are increasing. Blizzard conditions will develop this morning. DISCUSSION...Light to moderate snow is now being observed across most of northeast Kansas and west-central Missouri. Expect further increase in snowfall intensity through the morning as the mid-latitude cyclone continues to organize. Snowfall rates over 2 inches per hour are possible with 40 to 50% probabilities indicated by the HREF. In addition, winds are expected to increase further as strong high pressure builds into the northern Plains. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph for much of the day. This will result in significant blowing and drifting and visibility restrictions. Blizzard/near-blizzard conditions are likely along the I-70 corridor from central Kansas to west-central Missouri through most of the day today. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37959724 38299568 38529427 39049332 39649338 40099518 40029682 39769780 38549803 37959724 Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0001 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. A strong cold front continues to push southeast through the mid-Rio Grande Valley. A very dry air mass characterized by single-digit dewpoints noted across southeast NM in morning surface observations will advect into the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in at least a few hours of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the teens. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more