Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more