Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is not expected the remainder of this evening into early Wednesday, and no changes are needed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is not expected the remainder of this evening into early Wednesday, and no changes are needed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is not expected the remainder of this evening into early Wednesday, and no changes are needed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 7 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 7 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

Ongoing drought was affecting fish and wildlife in the Delaware River Basin. The brown trout that spawn in the autumn from September into October can be more vulnerable to drying out, ice and predators when the water is low. NJ Spotlight (Montclair, N.J.), Jan 6, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more