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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained over much of the Southeast on Friday, as a trough moves through the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the Southeast on Friday, as a surface low progresses eastward near the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the front and in the vicinity of the surface low during the day on Friday. The potential for isolated storms should move eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard Friday evening. Instability is forecast to be insufficient for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained over much of the Southeast on Friday, as a trough moves through the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the Southeast on Friday, as a surface low progresses eastward near the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the front and in the vicinity of the surface low during the day on Friday. The potential for isolated storms should move eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard Friday evening. Instability is forecast to be insufficient for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained over much of the Southeast on Friday, as a trough moves through the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the Southeast on Friday, as a surface low progresses eastward near the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the front and in the vicinity of the surface low during the day on Friday. The potential for isolated storms should move eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard Friday evening. Instability is forecast to be insufficient for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more