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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more