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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Solutions continue to suggest the onset of critical fire weather conditions between 20-00 UTC along the southern CA coast. Windier solutions, notably the HRRR, suggest widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are possible during the overnight hours with some locations seeing RH reductions to near 10%, and possibly into the upper single digits. Consequently, high-end critical fire weather conditions are possible by the end of the period (early Wednesday morning). ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Solutions continue to suggest the onset of critical fire weather conditions between 20-00 UTC along the southern CA coast. Windier solutions, notably the HRRR, suggest widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are possible during the overnight hours with some locations seeing RH reductions to near 10%, and possibly into the upper single digits. Consequently, high-end critical fire weather conditions are possible by the end of the period (early Wednesday morning). ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more