Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Thursday night. ...TX/LA... A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with an initially closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will foster increasingly widespread precipitation across the South-Central States on Thursday as a surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, overall thunder potential appears low. Very isolated, elevated thunder will be possible over a broad portion of central to east TX, mainly during the morning and afternoon. Elevated buoyancy should be scant at most, and mid/upper-level temperatures will gradually warm, weakening lapse rates later in the period. Primary convective potential will be focused over the northwest Gulf where 12Z HREF members are consistent with an offshore QLCS forming Thursday evening and broadening Thursday night. The northern extent of this may skim parts of coastal LA as the surface cyclone approaches overnight. Forecast soundings suggest this convection should remain shallow over land, with minimal chance for charge separation despite the potential intrusion of low 60s surface dew points. But given fast low to mid-level wind fields, strong surface gusts might accompany the convective line. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Thursday night. ...TX/LA... A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with an initially closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will foster increasingly widespread precipitation across the South-Central States on Thursday as a surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, overall thunder potential appears low. Very isolated, elevated thunder will be possible over a broad portion of central to east TX, mainly during the morning and afternoon. Elevated buoyancy should be scant at most, and mid/upper-level temperatures will gradually warm, weakening lapse rates later in the period. Primary convective potential will be focused over the northwest Gulf where 12Z HREF members are consistent with an offshore QLCS forming Thursday evening and broadening Thursday night. The northern extent of this may skim parts of coastal LA as the surface cyclone approaches overnight. Forecast soundings suggest this convection should remain shallow over land, with minimal chance for charge separation despite the potential intrusion of low 60s surface dew points. But given fast low to mid-level wind fields, strong surface gusts might accompany the convective line. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Thursday night. ...TX/LA... A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with an initially closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will foster increasingly widespread precipitation across the South-Central States on Thursday as a surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, overall thunder potential appears low. Very isolated, elevated thunder will be possible over a broad portion of central to east TX, mainly during the morning and afternoon. Elevated buoyancy should be scant at most, and mid/upper-level temperatures will gradually warm, weakening lapse rates later in the period. Primary convective potential will be focused over the northwest Gulf where 12Z HREF members are consistent with an offshore QLCS forming Thursday evening and broadening Thursday night. The northern extent of this may skim parts of coastal LA as the surface cyclone approaches overnight. Forecast soundings suggest this convection should remain shallow over land, with minimal chance for charge separation despite the potential intrusion of low 60s surface dew points. But given fast low to mid-level wind fields, strong surface gusts might accompany the convective line. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Thursday night. ...TX/LA... A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with an initially closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will foster increasingly widespread precipitation across the South-Central States on Thursday as a surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, overall thunder potential appears low. Very isolated, elevated thunder will be possible over a broad portion of central to east TX, mainly during the morning and afternoon. Elevated buoyancy should be scant at most, and mid/upper-level temperatures will gradually warm, weakening lapse rates later in the period. Primary convective potential will be focused over the northwest Gulf where 12Z HREF members are consistent with an offshore QLCS forming Thursday evening and broadening Thursday night. The northern extent of this may skim parts of coastal LA as the surface cyclone approaches overnight. Forecast soundings suggest this convection should remain shallow over land, with minimal chance for charge separation despite the potential intrusion of low 60s surface dew points. But given fast low to mid-level wind fields, strong surface gusts might accompany the convective line. ..Grams.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A low-latitude mid/upper-level low will settle south-southeastward over far northwest Mexico through tonight. Weak height falls will begin to influence far west Texas late tonight, with modestly increasing ascent atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. With cold temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates, weak elevated instability based around 700 mb may be sufficient for isolated lightning flashes late tonight, primarily after midnight. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A low-latitude mid/upper-level low will settle south-southeastward over far northwest Mexico through tonight. Weak height falls will begin to influence far west Texas late tonight, with modestly increasing ascent atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. With cold temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates, weak elevated instability based around 700 mb may be sufficient for isolated lightning flashes late tonight, primarily after midnight. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A low-latitude mid/upper-level low will settle south-southeastward over far northwest Mexico through tonight. Weak height falls will begin to influence far west Texas late tonight, with modestly increasing ascent atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. With cold temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates, weak elevated instability based around 700 mb may be sufficient for isolated lightning flashes late tonight, primarily after midnight. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/08/2025 Read more