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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more