Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to focus offshore. ..Guyer.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to focus offshore. ..Guyer.. 01/12/2025 Read more