Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to focus offshore. ..Guyer.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to focus offshore. ..Guyer.. 01/12/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more