Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 11 21:56:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 11 21:56:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears likely to remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge may continue to build offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation (within a branch of cyclonic flow initially across California into the Southwest) will contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, another cyclonic circulation (initially digging across the Minnesota international border vicinity) is forecast to continue southeastward across the upper Great Lakes vicinity, as one short wave perturbation digs around its western through southern periphery and weaker impulse pivots to its east and northeast. With larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the Caribbean also forecast to remain prominent, a generally confluent mid-level regime is likely to be maintained to the east of the Rockies. Models suggest that this will continue to support the development of expansive cold surface ridging, with the leading edge of one reinforcing cold intrusion expected to overspread much of the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that low-level forcing for ascent associated with warm advection may maintain convective development into Monday. However, this probably will tend to weaken/diminish while spreading across the northeastern Gulf, toward the Florida Gulf coast through Monday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears likely to remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge may continue to build offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation (within a branch of cyclonic flow initially across California into the Southwest) will contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, another cyclonic circulation (initially digging across the Minnesota international border vicinity) is forecast to continue southeastward across the upper Great Lakes vicinity, as one short wave perturbation digs around its western through southern periphery and weaker impulse pivots to its east and northeast. With larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the Caribbean also forecast to remain prominent, a generally confluent mid-level regime is likely to be maintained to the east of the Rockies. Models suggest that this will continue to support the development of expansive cold surface ridging, with the leading edge of one reinforcing cold intrusion expected to overspread much of the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that low-level forcing for ascent associated with warm advection may maintain convective development into Monday. However, this probably will tend to weaken/diminish while spreading across the northeastern Gulf, toward the Florida Gulf coast through Monday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears likely to remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge may continue to build offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation (within a branch of cyclonic flow initially across California into the Southwest) will contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, another cyclonic circulation (initially digging across the Minnesota international border vicinity) is forecast to continue southeastward across the upper Great Lakes vicinity, as one short wave perturbation digs around its western through southern periphery and weaker impulse pivots to its east and northeast. With larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the Caribbean also forecast to remain prominent, a generally confluent mid-level regime is likely to be maintained to the east of the Rockies. Models suggest that this will continue to support the development of expansive cold surface ridging, with the leading edge of one reinforcing cold intrusion expected to overspread much of the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that low-level forcing for ascent associated with warm advection may maintain convective development into Monday. However, this probably will tend to weaken/diminish while spreading across the northeastern Gulf, toward the Florida Gulf coast through Monday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more