Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 10 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0033 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern South Carolina into central North Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 102334Z - 110330Z SUMMARY...Heavier freezing rain rates will continue to spread into northern South Carolina into central North Carolina through the evening hours. .06 inch/3 hour rates are expected. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm-air advection continues to intensify across GA into SC ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. While a wintry mix is ongoing across central portions of NC into SC, the continued WAA in the 850-700 mb layer will encourage freezing rain to become the predominant mode of wintry precipitation into the evening hours, as evident via 22Z RAP forecast soundings and 23Z mesoanalysis. Surface observations depict an increase in freezing rain already underway across northern SC into central NC, with heavier ice accretion rates likely this evening. Furthermore, high-resolution model guidance also shows a high likelihood of .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates, especially in the 00-06Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34298312 34588309 34978262 35538191 36028018 36007895 35607866 34807927 34247988 33798058 33638124 33528175 33498235 33548272 34298312 Read more

MD 0032 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible. ..Thornton.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 35038501 35278472 35438440 35708379 35938286 35778201 35168155 34408234 34118328 33678477 34028542 34178549 35038501 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 10 19:54:02 UTC 2025.