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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0031 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST GA INTO PARTS OF SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...Northeast GA into parts of SC Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 101350Z - 101745Z SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation may increase through the morning. DISCUSSION...The eastern portion of an extensive precipitation shield is currently spreading across northeast GA into parts of SC. Evaporative cooling and saturation of an initially dry column (as noted on the 12Z CHS sounding) will allow for some increase in winter precipitation rates through the morning. As initial saturation occurs, occasionally moderate snow and/or sleet rates may develop (as noted in upstream observations), though there may be some tendency toward a liquid precipitation phase and freezing-rain potential with time and eastward extent, as warm advection above the surface continues to increase. Some ice accretion will be possible where near-surface cold/dry advection allows subfreezing temperatures to persist through the remainder of the morning into early afternoon. ..Dean.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34668331 34808306 34688236 34528157 34348095 34008018 33807988 33497976 33217979 33068006 32968036 32938070 32958118 32958170 32978217 32998271 33138340 33768294 34668331 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0030 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL/GA...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northeast MS...northern AL/GA...southern middle TN Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 101019Z - 101515Z SUMMARY...An increase in winter precipitation rates is possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...An extensive precipitation shield is gradually spreading eastward across the Southeast early this morning, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower MS Valley. Precipitation rates across northern AL/GA have thus far been limited by very dry antecedent conditions (as noted in the 00Z BMZ and FFC soundings), but saturation and evaporative cooling of the column will support an increase in winter precipitation across the region with time this morning. The evolution of precipitation type remains uncertain through the morning, due to the competing influences of initial evaporative cooling, increasing warm advection above the surface, and maintenance of modest near-surface cold/dry advection from the east/northeast. Snow may persist as the dominant precipitation type from far northern AL into middle TN, with rates potentially approaching an inch per hour as large-scale ascent increases and the column saturates. From north-central AL into northern GA, mixed precipitation appears more likely, with forecast soundings depicting near to slightly above-freezing temperatures from the surface to around 700 mb once saturation occurs. A general transition from snow/sleet to sleet/freezing rain/rain is possible across these areas. Moderate to locally heavy snow/sleet rates will be possible as the column initially saturates, while some ice accretion may eventually occur where subfreezing near-surface temperatures can persist as precipitation gradually transitions to a liquid phase. ..Dean.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34618333 35118555 35288666 35458794 34838814 34708861 34478934 34168929 33808899 33358820 33128717 33028501 33038397 33238330 33528303 33828296 34618333 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more