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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

The Central, Northeast, and Connecticut River Valley regions in Massachusetts were downgraded from a Level-3 Critical Drought to a Level-2 Significant Drought. The Western and Southeast Regions were also changed from a Level-3 Critical Drought to a Level-1 Mild Drought status due to improved conditions. The Cape and Islands regions remained in a Level-1 Mild Drought. Mass.gov Energy and Environmental Affairs (Boston, Ma.), Jan 8, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more