Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more