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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0029 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...Central/northern AR into northern MS and western TN Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 100842Z - 101345Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of near/above 1 inch per hour remain possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is ongoing early this morning across parts of far eastern OK into central/northern AR, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains towards the lower MS Valley. Low-level warm/moist advection and favorable upper jet dynamics will continue to support an extensive precipitation plume through the overnight. Surface observations and recent dual-pol data from KLZK and KNQA suggest the transition between snow and mixed precipitation types has remained relatively stationary to the south of Little Rock and Memphis (with some oscillation) over the last 1-2 hours, and a subfreezing column was maintained on the 05Z LZK sounding, though with near 0C observed between 850-750 mb. Precipitation rates will remain supportive of moderate to locally heavy snow through the early morning across parts of central/northern AR, with an increase in snow rates expected with time into western TN and far northern MS. Some mixing will remain possible along the southern portion of the MCD area, especially where somewhat stronger low-level warm advection persists across northern MS. ..Dean.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 34709429 35499418 36219360 36429297 36379136 36089041 35748914 35648874 35508829 35228808 34798831 34608945 34499080 34539291 34499369 34529411 34709429 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

MD 0028 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 100403Z - 100900Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain should continue across central and southern AR over the next several hours, with freezing rain also expected to gradually spread into MS with time. Accretion rates of .06 in/3 hr are possible in spots. DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm-air and moisture advection continues to overspread the Lower MS Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough approaches. Wintry mixed precipitation persists across portions of southern into central AR, with several instances of freezing rain noted by surface observations. Surface temperatures hover around or just below the freezing mark over several locales, and this should continue through the overnight hours, until the primary precipitation band clears the region. While some 925-850 mb warming is expected within the strong low-level WAA regime, surface wet bulb temperatures below 0C should support continued freezing rain tonight. A couple instances of .06 in/3 hr accretion rates may occur within the heavier portions of the main precipitation band. Freezing rain may develop into northern MS around or before 09Z, as also shown by some of the 00Z HREF guidance. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33609409 33679412 34259382 34739241 35018976 34968856 34668827 34278839 33978922 33789059 33509191 33169284 33239392 33609409 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf coasts. As a result, a continued dry and stable airmass will persist ahead of the aforementioned cold front, and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore the TX/LA coasts. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a cold and dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf coasts. As a result, a continued dry and stable airmass will persist ahead of the aforementioned cold front, and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore the TX/LA coasts. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a cold and dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf coasts. As a result, a continued dry and stable airmass will persist ahead of the aforementioned cold front, and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore the TX/LA coasts. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a cold and dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf coasts. As a result, a continued dry and stable airmass will persist ahead of the aforementioned cold front, and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore the TX/LA coasts. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a cold and dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf coasts. As a result, a continued dry and stable airmass will persist ahead of the aforementioned cold front, and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore the TX/LA coasts. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a cold and dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more