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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0027 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0527 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 092327Z - 100330Z SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation should continue into the evening hours, with heavier snow likely later tonight. DISCUSSION...700 mb warm-air and moisture advection is increasing across AR with the approach of the mid-level trough, which is currently progressing across the southern Plains. The low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime is supporting heavier precipitation across central AR, as shown by both MRMS mosaic and KLZK regional radar imagery. Bright banding is ongoing across southwestern into central AR, with reports of heavier snow rates just north of the bright banding area. RAP forecast soundings shows temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer hovering around the freezing mark, which will continue to support a mix of snow, sleet, and perhaps some freezing rain over the next few hours. With time, cooling within this layer will promote primarily heavy snow, including 1+ inch/hr rates, later this evening. ..Squitieri.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34399402 34719379 35069249 35199141 35159078 34899054 34319109 34079242 34079301 34149368 34399402 Read more

MD 0026 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Texas into far southeast Oklahoma and far southwest Arkansas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 092106Z - 100100Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and perhaps some snow/sleet mix will continue spreading northeastward across northeast Texas into the early evening. Some locations could see freezing rain rates around 0.10 inch/3 hours. DISCUSSION...Recent mosaic radar data shows a swath of mixed winter precipitation spreading northeastward across north-central TX -- where surface temperatures are hovering around 32-33F. Within a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, and at the nose of an eastward-shifting plume of warm advection, this activity will continue expanding across northeast TX into this evening. Here, forecast soundings indicate a deep/saturated profile with a warm-nose temperature around 0.1-0.2C atop sub-freezing surface conditions -- favoring partial melting of descending hydrometeors. This should support primarily freezing rain, though some mix of sleet/snow will also be possible. Freezing rain rates around 0.10 inch/3 hours will be possible in some locations across northeast TX into far southeast OK and southwest AR through the evening. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 33509657 33859559 34159415 33919365 33519363 33039489 32809603 32799651 33119687 33509657 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep, positive-tilt upper trough will sink southeastward across the Plains tonight, with strengthening southwest flow aloft from TX into the lower MS Valley. While strong warm advection will occur around 850 mb out of the south from eastern TX into LA tonight, minimal instability is expected. Further, any instability that does develop will be elevated above the stable boundary layer. As such, severe weather is unlikely, but a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep, positive-tilt upper trough will sink southeastward across the Plains tonight, with strengthening southwest flow aloft from TX into the lower MS Valley. While strong warm advection will occur around 850 mb out of the south from eastern TX into LA tonight, minimal instability is expected. Further, any instability that does develop will be elevated above the stable boundary layer. As such, severe weather is unlikely, but a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep, positive-tilt upper trough will sink southeastward across the Plains tonight, with strengthening southwest flow aloft from TX into the lower MS Valley. While strong warm advection will occur around 850 mb out of the south from eastern TX into LA tonight, minimal instability is expected. Further, any instability that does develop will be elevated above the stable boundary layer. As such, severe weather is unlikely, but a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep, positive-tilt upper trough will sink southeastward across the Plains tonight, with strengthening southwest flow aloft from TX into the lower MS Valley. While strong warm advection will occur around 850 mb out of the south from eastern TX into LA tonight, minimal instability is expected. Further, any instability that does develop will be elevated above the stable boundary layer. As such, severe weather is unlikely, but a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2025 Read more