Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing northeast along the middle TX Coast. This feature will lose its identity as it ejects into the central Gulf States later tonight. Scattered, shallow convection is noted ahead of this feature from the northwestern Gulf basin, extending northeast along the LA Coast into southern AL. Buoyancy is limited inland as surface dew points are only in the lower 50s along the coast due to easterly boundary-layer flow. Elevated instability should gradually increase overnight and forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy for lightning discharge with updrafts rooted near 900mb. Isolated thunderstorm potential continues. ..Darrow.. 01/13/2025 Read more