Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more