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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more