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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Shallow, weak convection continues to weaken as it sags southeast across the central FL Peninsula early this evening. Very little lightning has been noted with this band over the northeast Gulf Basin, and updrafts will likely struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Shallow, weak convection continues to weaken as it sags southeast across the central FL Peninsula early this evening. Very little lightning has been noted with this band over the northeast Gulf Basin, and updrafts will likely struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Shallow, weak convection continues to weaken as it sags southeast across the central FL Peninsula early this evening. Very little lightning has been noted with this band over the northeast Gulf Basin, and updrafts will likely struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Shallow, weak convection continues to weaken as it sags southeast across the central FL Peninsula early this evening. Very little lightning has been noted with this band over the northeast Gulf Basin, and updrafts will likely struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 13 22:21:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 13 22:21:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more