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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more