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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late. As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night. Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more