Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper shortwave ridging will spread east from the Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. This will occur as two shortwave upper troughs move across the Southwest and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by early Friday. At the surface, a deepening low will shift east across the Canadian Prairies, with an attending surface trough extending southward through much of the U.S. Plains states. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain over the Southeast, and Gulf moisture will remain suppressed will south of the U.S. Gulf coast. A cool, dry and stable airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper shortwave ridging will spread east from the Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. This will occur as two shortwave upper troughs move across the Southwest and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by early Friday. At the surface, a deepening low will shift east across the Canadian Prairies, with an attending surface trough extending southward through much of the U.S. Plains states. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain over the Southeast, and Gulf moisture will remain suppressed will south of the U.S. Gulf coast. A cool, dry and stable airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper shortwave ridging will spread east from the Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. This will occur as two shortwave upper troughs move across the Southwest and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by early Friday. At the surface, a deepening low will shift east across the Canadian Prairies, with an attending surface trough extending southward through much of the U.S. Plains states. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain over the Southeast, and Gulf moisture will remain suppressed will south of the U.S. Gulf coast. A cool, dry and stable airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper shortwave ridging will spread east from the Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. This will occur as two shortwave upper troughs move across the Southwest and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by early Friday. At the surface, a deepening low will shift east across the Canadian Prairies, with an attending surface trough extending southward through much of the U.S. Plains states. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain over the Southeast, and Gulf moisture will remain suppressed will south of the U.S. Gulf coast. A cool, dry and stable airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today. ...Coastal Texas... Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States. Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today. ...Coastal Texas... Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States. Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today. ...Coastal Texas... Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States. Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today. ...Coastal Texas... Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States. Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 Read more