Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more