Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more