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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ..Halbert.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Maryland Department of Environment issued drought warnings and watches across the state and encouraged water conservation. Drought warnings were enacted for the Eastern and Southern areas, while drought watches were issued for Central and Western Maryland. The Baltimore area was in normal condition. WMAR-TV ABC 2 (Baltimore, Md.), Nov 18, 2024

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring drying aloft. That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts. At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization precludes any low severe probabilities. Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more