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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more