SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL/Southern GA... Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general pattern of a mid-upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS will persist through much of the extended outlook period, with the residual influence of an arctic air mass limiting buoyancy for the vast majority of the CONUS. There may be some potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of south FL by early Wednesday (late D4 into D5). However, forecast confidence in the sub-synoptic details is low given a low-amplitude midlevel trough crossing the northern Gulf of Mexico (with associated timing questions). The residual arctic air mass and a probable lack of substantial surface cyclogenesis suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general pattern of a mid-upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS will persist through much of the extended outlook period, with the residual influence of an arctic air mass limiting buoyancy for the vast majority of the CONUS. There may be some potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of south FL by early Wednesday (late D4 into D5). However, forecast confidence in the sub-synoptic details is low given a low-amplitude midlevel trough crossing the northern Gulf of Mexico (with associated timing questions). The residual arctic air mass and a probable lack of substantial surface cyclogenesis suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general pattern of a mid-upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS will persist through much of the extended outlook period, with the residual influence of an arctic air mass limiting buoyancy for the vast majority of the CONUS. There may be some potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of south FL by early Wednesday (late D4 into D5). However, forecast confidence in the sub-synoptic details is low given a low-amplitude midlevel trough crossing the northern Gulf of Mexico (with associated timing questions). The residual arctic air mass and a probable lack of substantial surface cyclogenesis suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, mid-upper trough will dominate the CONUS, especially from the Rockies eastward. An associated arctic air mass will have enveloped the majority of the CONUS by Monday, including the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Thus, moisture/buoyancy will be negligible inland, with no appreciable threat for deep convection/lightning. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, mid-upper trough will dominate the CONUS, especially from the Rockies eastward. An associated arctic air mass will have enveloped the majority of the CONUS by Monday, including the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Thus, moisture/buoyancy will be negligible inland, with no appreciable threat for deep convection/lightning. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during the day across central Florida. ...Central FL during the day Sunday... Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses southeastward across the FL peninsula during the day. Some increase in low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front during the day, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in the 70s. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and buoyancy will remain limited (MLCAPE will likely peak in the 500-750 J/kg range). The combination of weak buoyancy and sufficiently long, relatively straight hodographs will support low potential for organized storms in a band along the cold front, perhaps with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 18, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during the day across central Florida. ...Central FL during the day Sunday... Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses southeastward across the FL peninsula during the day. Some increase in low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front during the day, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in the 70s. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and buoyancy will remain limited (MLCAPE will likely peak in the 500-750 J/kg range). The combination of weak buoyancy and sufficiently long, relatively straight hodographs will support low potential for organized storms in a band along the cold front, perhaps with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson.. 01/18/2025 Read more