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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more