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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions along the Rio Grande in TX this afternoon. However, near/above-average fuel moisture should keep the threat localized. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold airmass, associated with a large-scale mid-level trough, will dominate much of the CONUS on Saturday. On the western periphery of the trough, where the geopotential height gradient is strongest between an embedded shortwave trough and broad ridging off the U.S. West Coast, a strong jet streak is forecast to progress south-southeastward across the Intermountain West. This will result in dry and windy conditions across the Four Corners region, with sustained winds reaching 20-25 MPH. Despite the strong surface winds and low relative humidity, generally cooler temperatures and fuels that aren't overly receptive to wildfire spread will keep any fire threat localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more