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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact northeastern Gulf coastal areas between the Florida Big Bend and Tampa, and adjacent portions of northern Florida, overnight. These may pose at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...01Z Update... To this point, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization has remained confined to the open northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this environment, sustained weak convective development has been occurring along a near-surface confluence zone and more elevated downstream zone of low-level warm advection extending east-northeastward across and inland of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching low-amplitude wave now crossing the northern Gulf, within the subtropical westerlies, further development and gradual intensification of this convection may occur this evening, mainly offshore (to the west-southwest of the Big Bend). More notable intensification may commence toward and particularly after 05-06Z, as a vigorous short wave trough continues digging southeast of the southern Rockies, and contributes to upstream amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompassing much of North America. More substantive deepening of the northeastward migrating frontal wave is generally not forecast until this mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. However, at least some model output suggests that pre-frontal southwesterly 850 mb flow may begin to strengthen overnight (to 40-50 kt by 09-12Z) in a corridor along/just ahead of the aforementioned convective band. In addition to contributing to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, it is possible that near-surface moistening and warming may becoming conducive to increasing potential for strong surface gusts or a tornado across coastal into adjacent interior portions of central/northern Florida. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact northeastern Gulf coastal areas between the Florida Big Bend and Tampa, and adjacent portions of northern Florida, overnight. These may pose at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...01Z Update... To this point, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization has remained confined to the open northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this environment, sustained weak convective development has been occurring along a near-surface confluence zone and more elevated downstream zone of low-level warm advection extending east-northeastward across and inland of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching low-amplitude wave now crossing the northern Gulf, within the subtropical westerlies, further development and gradual intensification of this convection may occur this evening, mainly offshore (to the west-southwest of the Big Bend). More notable intensification may commence toward and particularly after 05-06Z, as a vigorous short wave trough continues digging southeast of the southern Rockies, and contributes to upstream amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompassing much of North America. More substantive deepening of the northeastward migrating frontal wave is generally not forecast until this mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. However, at least some model output suggests that pre-frontal southwesterly 850 mb flow may begin to strengthen overnight (to 40-50 kt by 09-12Z) in a corridor along/just ahead of the aforementioned convective band. In addition to contributing to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, it is possible that near-surface moistening and warming may becoming conducive to increasing potential for strong surface gusts or a tornado across coastal into adjacent interior portions of central/northern Florida. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact northeastern Gulf coastal areas between the Florida Big Bend and Tampa, and adjacent portions of northern Florida, overnight. These may pose at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...01Z Update... To this point, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization has remained confined to the open northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this environment, sustained weak convective development has been occurring along a near-surface confluence zone and more elevated downstream zone of low-level warm advection extending east-northeastward across and inland of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching low-amplitude wave now crossing the northern Gulf, within the subtropical westerlies, further development and gradual intensification of this convection may occur this evening, mainly offshore (to the west-southwest of the Big Bend). More notable intensification may commence toward and particularly after 05-06Z, as a vigorous short wave trough continues digging southeast of the southern Rockies, and contributes to upstream amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompassing much of North America. More substantive deepening of the northeastward migrating frontal wave is generally not forecast until this mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. However, at least some model output suggests that pre-frontal southwesterly 850 mb flow may begin to strengthen overnight (to 40-50 kt by 09-12Z) in a corridor along/just ahead of the aforementioned convective band. In addition to contributing to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, it is possible that near-surface moistening and warming may becoming conducive to increasing potential for strong surface gusts or a tornado across coastal into adjacent interior portions of central/northern Florida. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 18 23:06:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 18 23:06:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more