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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Eastern OK into AR... Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast... As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB 500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the 50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting any severe threat. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Eastern OK into AR... Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast... As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB 500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the 50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting any severe threat. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Eastern OK into AR... Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast... As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB 500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the 50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting any severe threat. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Eastern OK into AR... Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast... As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB 500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the 50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting any severe threat. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Eastern OK into AR... Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast... As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB 500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the 50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting any severe threat. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and expansive upper trough will exist over much of Canada and the United States on Sunday, with high pressure at the surface. Minimal instability may exist over parts of FL as a cold front rapidly pushes southward during the day, with perhaps a few weak thunderstorms developing atop the boundary. Otherwise, thunderstorms are unlikely across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2025 Read more