Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW HDO TO 45 N HDO TO 65 WNW AUS TO 20 NE BWD TO 35 ENE ABI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-035-053-093-097-099-133-143-163-193-221-237-259-281- 299-325-333-337-363-367-425-429-497-503-507-230840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK KENDALL LAMPASAS LLANO MEDINA MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL STEPHENS WISE YOUNG ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more