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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... A small Critical area was introduced with this outlook across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma. Winds across this region will be marginal from a Critical stand point, however, relative humidity reductions to 10-15% seem likely to overlap winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20-25 mph, gusting 20-30 mph). Given ongoing fire activity in this area and potential for holdover fires, a Critical delineation was supported to communicate this risk. Overnight relative humidity recovery to around 40-60 percent is forecast, however, conditions will quickly mix out tomorrow morning with several hours of Elevated to Critical fire weather. Further south across north-central Texas, the Elevated was expanded further north and eastward near the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. There is some spread in forecast relative humidity within this region, but a reasonable chance for relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent to overlap winds 15-20 mph amid dry fuels supports addition of the Elevated into this region. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more