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WW 31 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 142020Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread rapidly north-northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for widespread severe/damaging winds. The strongest wind gusts could reach 80-90 mph on an isolated basis. Some hail and perhaps a tornado could also occur if a supercell can form and be sustained later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Lincoln NE to 50 miles north of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19055. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MCW TO 35 W MCW TO 35 NE OTG. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-033-037-043-065-067-081-089-131-189-191-195-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON FAYETTE FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD MITCHELL WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC013-039-043-045-047-055-091-099-109-147-161-165-169-150240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MARTIN MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WASECA WATONWAN WINONA WIC023-043-063-081-103-123-150240- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more