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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East. ...Southeast... A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated damaging wind threat by late afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning, should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated, limiting severe potential. ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau... The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more