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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa. ...Southern Plains... Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before dissipating with the loss of heating. Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail. ..Jewell.. 04/23/2025 Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/22/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-033-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-151-155-159-167- 169-173-185-191-230040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION PRATT RENO RICE RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-073- 075-093-129-141-149-151-153-230040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KINGFISHER Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/22/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-033-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-151-155-159-167- 169-173-185-191-230040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION PRATT RENO RICE RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-073- 075-093-129-141-149-151-153-230040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KINGFISHER Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/22/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-033-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-151-155-159-167- 169-173-185-191-230040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION PRATT RENO RICE RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-073- 075-093-129-141-149-151-153-230040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KINGFISHER Read more

MD 0519 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... FOR MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...Much of western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159... Valid 222224Z - 230000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159. Large hail and severe gusts are the main threats. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed ahead of the dryline across western TX, some with a history of severe wind and hail. At the moment, the strongest storms are progressing across southern parts of the TX Panhandle and the Trans Pecos region. The supercell across Pecos County TX has rapidly intensified in the last hour and has been exhibiting deviant rightward motion. This storm has the best chance at producing a tornado over the next hour or so. Storms may continue to develop across western TX, with storm mergers potentially supporting cold pool intensification and perhaps a greater severe gust threat this evening. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 30760348 33230296 34600199 35090144 35310073 35320000 34139980 32249997 30740008 29930048 29730111 29730173 29970250 30760348 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/22/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-033-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-151-155-159-167- 169-173-185-191-230040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION PRATT RENO RICE RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-031-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-073- 075-093-129-141-149-151-153-230040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KINGFISHER Read more

WW 160 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 222230Z - 230600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening from south-central KS southward through western OK into northwest TX. The environment across the region supports the potential for supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. A tornado or two is also possible, along with some strong gusts as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Hutchinson KS to 60 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0518 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222154Z - 222330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A baroclinic boundary/weak surface front continues to slowly sag southward, serving as a local source of lift for deep-moist convection. One multicellular cluster has already developed along the boundary in central IL and produced an instance of 1 inch diameter hail. Through the afternoon a couple more storms could develop. If they do, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kts of effective bulk shear may support an instance of marginally severe hail/wind. The severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39419221 39799248 40359229 40839119 41089038 41008919 40568875 40068919 39758991 39599079 39479176 39419221 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma...south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222025Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and severe hail risk to increase through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated and expected to continue to form along the dryline across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the frontal boundary draped across western/central Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this development, the air mass across western Oklahoma into central/eastern Kansas has been suppressed owing to weak forcing and stout MLCIN most of the afternoon. Temperatures are warming, with MLCIN eroding west to east across the Texas Panhandle as temperatures have climbed into the 80s. Aloft sounding analysis indicates, steep lapse rates and ample CAPE above the 850 mb inversion. Thunderstorm activity will gradually shift into this region by late afternoon/evening. A mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected. A watch will likely be needed in the coming hours to cover this risk. ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB... LAT...LON 35509851 34599879 34269925 34209990 34279999 34999994 35729994 36779994 37199980 37939913 38309859 38449818 38439739 38409696 38119653 37569643 37129678 36089793 35509851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more