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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

A diminished wildflower bloom across Texas, including the Hill Country, has resulted from ongoing drought conditions. A couple of local photographers who typically do bluebonnet photo sessions have had to cancel those plans and were hoping for improved rainfall in coming months to encourage the plants to grow and bloom. The University Star (San Marcos, Texas), April 22, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more