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MD 0186 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...35...39... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34...35...39... Valid 150414Z - 150615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34, 35, 39 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/damaging gusts are expected to continue for the next couple of hours across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an arcing band of convection extending from southeastern Minnesota south-southeastward into Illinois. Stronger cells along the leading edge of this band -- advancing northeastward across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois -- remain capable of producing damaging gusts in excess of 60 MPH. This convection will begin to affect the Milwaukee and Chicago metropolitan areas through/after midnight. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42489037 43519069 43979050 43208834 42148773 41078749 40928850 41078922 41878970 42489037 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more