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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the prior outlook. Dry conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest and northeastern NM behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. However, consensus model guidance suggests winds are unlikely to gust over 15-20 mph on a widespread basis. Additional elevated conditions are possible over parts of western FL where very warm temperatures and low RH will support some fire-weather risk. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more