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WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-135-301-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-232340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN KS...SERN CO...OK PNHDL
Mesoscale Discussion 0528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn KS...sern CO...OK Pnhdl Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231939Z - 232215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, including the potential for supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes in a focused area near/southeast of Goodland. DISCUSSION...With daytime heating and mixing, the boundary-layer within surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through western Kansas continues to deepen and destabilize. It now appears generally characterized by surface temperature/dew point spreads in excess of 30 F, with CAPE increasing to 1500-2000+ J/kg. Inhibition is in the process of weakening, and deepening high-based convection is now evident within the axis of stronger destabilization. With further insolation, the initiation of thunderstorms appears increasingly probable, some of which may eventually be accompanied by small hail and localized strong downbursts. Of greater concern is the potential for convective development where better low-level moisture, on the western periphery of outflow associated with persistent ongoing convection across central Kansas, intersects the axis of stronger heating. This appears focused near a weak developing cyclonic circulation southeast of Goodland, where shear associated with clockwise turning of low-level wind fields with height, beneath a belt of 30 kt westerly flow around 500 mb, is likely sufficient for supercells. This is where potential for large hail appears maximized, and near-surface CAPE/upward vertical accelerations may promote the potential for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 39490179 39490081 38790011 38070052 36930225 37220375 38350211 38920164 39490179 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A potent upper trough is expected to translate east-northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains from Day 3/Friday through Day 6/Monday. Intensifying mid-level flow over ahead of the trough over a dry boundary layer will present a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest and adjacent High Plains where anticipated precipitation will be limited over existing dry fuels. ...Southwest and Southern Great Basin... Increasing southwest winds associated with a eastward progressing upper-level trough will couple with low daytime relative humidity to generate several days of Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent High Plains, where dry fuels remain or are expected to develop. The strongest wind and dry air mass alignment, coinciding with the arrival of the mid-level jet max, will be on Day 5/Sunday across portions of southern and central New Mexico where a 70 percent chance of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced. Model guidance depicts the eastward progression of the upper-trough and subsequent lee surface trough ejection into the Northern Plains by Day 6/Monday. However, forecast uncertainty exists with spatial distribution of southern High Plains convective precipitation which could tame fuel receptiveness to spread across the area. ...Florida... A very dry fuelscape remains across the Florida Panhandle. A cold front descending into the Southeast by early next week with greater probabilities of wetting rains across northern Florida. Continued east-southeast winds along with dry fuels could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more