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WW 163 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 232050Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening across the watch area, with a few supercells possible. Large hail is the primary concern, however a tornado or two could occur later this evening as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Goodland KS to 5 miles east of Elkhart KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0162 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0162 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20 knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. Read more