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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment, both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more

MD 0526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl and eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231654Z - 231930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts, mainly toward 2-4 PM CDT and later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Above a modestly moist boundary layer (characterized by mid/upper 50s F surface dew points), within broad surface troughing across the central and southern Great Plains, forecast soundings suggest that a subsidence induced warm/dry layer between 850-700 mb is still contributing to substantial inhibition across central into eastern Kansas. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated in a small cluster north of Hutchinson. Even if this activity is rooted close to the surface, and being forced through the capping layer, CAPE within/above the mixed-phase layer still appears modest, with weak shear beneath 10-15+ kt westerly 500 mb flow also likely to limit potential for large hail growth. Latest objective analysis, though, does indicate a corridor of increasing boundary-layer destabilization, roughly along Interstate 70 near/east of Concordia, in response to continuing insolation and some further moistening aided by weak low-level convergence. As this boundary-layer destabilization progresses (and lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates become rather steep), weakening mid-level inhibition may allow for intensifying thunderstorm activity with increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39709815 39789622 39619499 38659484 38479620 37969696 38129791 38999807 39709815 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast through the second half of the period. At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm activity. ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may persist through the day. By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to moderate destabilization, additional storm development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening, spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for hail/wind may persist through the evening. ..Goss.. 04/23/2025 Read more