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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...1630Z update... Current and expected surface observations across the Florida Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights were removed for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across the Trans Pecos area. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 23 16:35:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more