Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ABI TO 25 SE LTS TO 35 WNW CHK. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC141-240940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-275-447-485-487-240940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ABI TO 15 SSE LTS TO 5 ESE CSM. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC075-141-240840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIOWA TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-275-447-485-487-240840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more