Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0539 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Central and North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241137Z - 241400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may continue across parts of central and north Texas this morning. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The potential for weather watch issuance is low. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong thunderstorms located from southern Oklahoma into north Texas, with a linear cluster extending southward into central Texas. The storms are located near a moist axis where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Across the moist airmass, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The instability, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough and warm advection are supporting the storms. In addition, the FWS WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear has 30 to 35 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This shear environment should be enough to continue an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. The severe threat may increase locally over the next hour or two, as the cells to the south merge with the line to the north. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31449841 31309802 31359717 31729662 32439624 33209623 33909662 34159727 33959789 33739824 33409878 32989907 32479894 32059874 31449841 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ABI TO 40 WSW SPS TO 10 SSW FSI. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-207-447-485-241040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL THROCKMORTON WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 165 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 240420Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1120 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms should continue east-southeastward into southwest Oklahoma and western North Texas early in the overnight, with some continued potential for severe-caliber wind gusts and sporadic hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Altus OK to 45 miles south southeast of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 164... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... FOR NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165... Valid 240710Z - 240915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts is expected to continue over parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas late tonight into the early morning. The threat should become marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely to the east of WW 165. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Frederick, Oklahoma shows a line of strong thunderstorms from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas. This line is located near the northwestern edge of a moist airmass, along a north-to-south axis of moderate instability. Ahead of the path of the convective line, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE from 500 to 1500 J/kg. In addition, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis suggest that a low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving through the southern and central Plains. Large-scale ascent, along with the instability and low-level warm advection, is supporting the convective line. The DYX WSR-88D VWP has some directional shear in the lowest 3 kilometers and has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This should be enough to continue an isolated wind-damage threat along and ahead of the stronger parts of the line over the next couple of hours. However, the line will move eastward into weak instability, which will likely marginalize the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32969768 33049906 33299959 33599964 34279914 34989885 35059802 34499631 34009601 33459607 33029644 32969768 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more