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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC055-057-065-075-141-240640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN TXC009-023-155-197-207-275-447-485-487-240640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC055-057-065-075-141-240640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN TXC009-023-155-197-207-275-447-485-487-240640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more