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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0209 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern Indiana into far southeast Lower Michigan and western Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151948Z - 152115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail/wind or a brief tornado are possible into early evening.The severe threat should be sparse at best and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity within a low-level moisture axis preceding the approach of a mid-level trough. Vertical strengthening and veering of flow with height supports 40 kts of effective bulk shear. KIWX radar shows that some of the more recent, stronger storm structures have exhibited multicellular to transient supercellular characteristics. However, these storms are progressing in a marginally unstable environment, characterized by 500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, one of the stronger storms could produce an instance of marginally severe hail/wind/a brief tornado. However, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX... LAT...LON 39438766 41008646 42358526 42818360 42638322 42248321 41808337 41068290 40438305 39708345 39438427 39548566 39438766 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

MD 0208 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 47... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 47... Valid 151915Z - 152045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 47. A few damaging gusts or QLCS tornadoes remain possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to progress eastward across Middle TN amid afternoon peak heating. Surface temperatures have warmed to over 70 F downstream of the QLCS, supporting MUCAPE approaching 500 J/kg. Though the HTX VAD shows a large, curved hodograph, boundary-layer buoyancy remains scant (as demonstrated by neutral to stable lapse-rates in the 18Z BNA observed sounding). As such, it is unclear how much of the ambient environmental SRH is effective (i.e. can be ingested into the leading-line updrafts). At least a threat for damaging gusts should persist with the progression of this line, though a few tornadoes remain possible given such strong low-level shear. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 35058759 35848718 36428668 36578568 36428494 36088470 35778491 35398543 35188571 35028616 35058759 Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MSL TO 20 SSE BNA TO 35 SSE BWG. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-103-111-117-127- 133-137-141-149-159-169-175-177-185-189-152140- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0207 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45...46... FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of far eastern Louisiana into eastern Mississippi and far western Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46... Valid 151907Z - 152030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...The most concerning tornado threat for the next 1 to 2 hours extends from south-central Mississippi vicinity to far west-central Alabama. DISCUSSION...Several supercells across southern Mississippi have already produced intense to violent tornadoes, including 2 paths within very close proximity from Walthall to Marion counties from consecutive supercells. These supercells and a few others which have recently developed across St. Helena and Tangipahoa Parishes are the storms of greatest tornadic concern over the next 1 to 2 hours. These supercells are in the centroid of the greatest STP (6+) and in the closest proximity to the upper 70s to low 80s temperatures where surface winds remain backed. Expect this environment to maintain through the afternoon as a meso-low (~994mb) currently across central Mississippi translates northeast at a similar speed to the mean storm motion. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30439061 30639079 31009084 31449042 31968975 32338930 32648904 32888886 32968851 32898815 32058829 31768850 31298880 30758942 30358996 30319026 30439061 Read more

MD 0206 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45...46... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...southern Mississippi to central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46... Valid 151831Z - 152030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells are likely to persist through the afternoon with intense to violent tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells have developed from central to south-central Mississippi. One of these supercells has already produced a likely violent tornado across Walthall county. The environment downstream of these supercells continues to destabilize, which will maintain the threat through the afternoon and likely into the evening. Eventually, these storms will likely move east of the upper 60s dewpoints. However, mid 60s dewpoints, which are expected to be prevalent across Alabama, should be sufficient for a continued intense to violent tornado threat given the continued favorable kinematics and the presence of already strong supercells. This is supported by the 17Z WoFS with more than half of the ensemble members showing one or more long track UH swaths from south-central Mississippi to central Alabama through the afternoon. Increased forcing with the ejecting mid-level jet max, has led to a large amount of additional showers and small thunderstorms in the vicinity of these storms. This may lead to occasional disruptions of tornadic circulations, but expect the strongly dynamic pressure perturbations associated with the ongoing supercells to persist through the entire afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 33578809 33858764 33638710 33288693 32778680 32448685 31838781 30908946 30868967 30889019 31149036 31499024 32228959 33088875 33578809 Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 152140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON MSC039-041-111-131-153-152140- Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW MSY TO 35 E GWO TO 40 NNE TUP. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-063-091-093-095-103-105-117-152140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC007-017-019-023-025-031-035-057-061-065-067-069-073-075-077- 079-081-087-091-095-099-101-103-105-109-113-117-121-123-127-129- 141-147-155-159-152140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE LOWNDES MARION MONROE NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more