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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0539 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Central and North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241137Z - 241400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may continue across parts of central and north Texas this morning. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The potential for weather watch issuance is low. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong thunderstorms located from southern Oklahoma into north Texas, with a linear cluster extending southward into central Texas. The storms are located near a moist axis where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Across the moist airmass, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The instability, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough and warm advection are supporting the storms. In addition, the FWS WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear has 30 to 35 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This shear environment should be enough to continue an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. The severe threat may increase locally over the next hour or two, as the cells to the south merge with the line to the north. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31449841 31309802 31359717 31729662 32439624 33209623 33909662 34159727 33959789 33739824 33409878 32989907 32479894 32059874 31449841 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. ...Southern/Central Plains... Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today. Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will persist across these regions though the period, with multiple convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring, the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the central Plains. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025 Read more