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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Discussion... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind are expected. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 24 18:01:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL INTO NERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl into nern TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241529Z - 241800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development appears likely to persist, with at least a gradual continuing upscale growth, intensification and organization possible through 1-3 PM CDT. This may be accompanied by the risk for severe hail, and increasing potential for strong wind gusts later this afternoon. It is not certain if or when a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent, largely driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, is maintaining vigorous thunderstorm development across parts of west central Texas, near/south of Abilene toward the Stephenville area. This has been focused above relatively cool convective outflow, near the eastern periphery of a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas South Plains. This plume is forecast to continue to slowly spread eastward across the southern Great Plains through mid afternoon. At the same time, however, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the south and east of the convective outflow will continue to destabilize with daytime heating, with CAPE likely to increase in excess of 1500 J/kg. As the forcing for ascent spreads slowly eastward, there appears potential for substantive intensification and upscale growth of ongoing convective development as southeasterly low-level updraft inflow continues to destabilize. However, the extent to which this may be countered by warming mid-levels remains unclear, but this may primarily just impact how soon this afternoon thunderstorm activity undergoes more notable intensification. Once this occurs, 20-25 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow is modestly sheared, and probably to sufficient to contribute to a risk for severe hail in the more discrete initial intensifying cells. Gradually, a growing cluster may begin to organize, including the evolution of an MCV and strengthening surface cold pool accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32299977 32549760 33159702 33089574 31949496 31119588 30439784 31249946 31469994 32299977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more