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WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CHA TO 15 S CSV TO 30 SE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC047-055-083-111-123-129-187-213-227-281-291-295-311-313- 160340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE FANNIN GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC039-160340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE TNC007-011-065-107-121-123-139-143-160340- Read more

WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CHA TO 15 S CSV TO 30 SE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC047-055-083-111-123-129-187-213-227-281-291-295-311-313- 160340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE FANNIN GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC039-160340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE TNC007-011-065-107-121-123-139-143-160340- Read more

WW 48 TORNADO GA NC TN 152155Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Georgia Far Western North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area through this evening, with a risk for tornadoes, a couple potentially strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Knoxville TN to 40 miles south southeast of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Bunting Read more

MD 0213 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 46... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into central and southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 46... Valid 152318Z - 160215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues. SUMMARY...The environment remains quite favorable for strong tornadoes, but will depend on storm mode going into the evening and early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of eastern MS have transitioned into more of a small MCS this evening, from west-central AL into parts of eastern MS. Farther south, more discrete cell mode was noted across far southern MS to the LA border. While storm mode is currently a bit disorganized, shear, moisture and instability all remain favorable for conditionally strong tornadoes at any point this evening and through early morning. In addition, dewpoints and thus instability will also increase across the remainder of eastern AL and toward GA late tonight as the low-level jet persists. It is possible that reorganization may take place later this evening as we transition out of the daytime/diurnal regime. Any robust, discrete cells will have a high conditional risk of being tornadic supercells. Any linear structures may still produce tornadoes and swaths of damaging wind as well as effective SRH remains at or above 500 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30318979 30628951 31458910 31998846 32308814 32658781 32878771 33188745 33408693 33428620 33228596 32858582 32268597 31668640 31168676 30288732 30068936 30318979 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

MD 0215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into western Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160002Z - 160200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance across western Georgia, eastern and southeast Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle is expected before 01 UTC as severe storms spread east. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the most intense/organized convection across central AL extending southwestward into far southeast MS. Per recent MCD #213, the expectation is that this activity will continue to pose a severe wind and tornado risk heading into the late evening hours as it spreads east/northeast. Recent HRRR-based SSCRAM and WoFS guidance suggest that areas of eastern AL will see an uptick in the severe threat by 01-03 UTC with western GA and parts of the FL Panhandle between 02-05 UTC. These solutions also show a convective environment characterized by STP values between 2-4 will spread east with time and will continue to support the potential for long-track/significant tornadoes, as well as damaging/severe wind gusts (possibly as high as 60-70 mph). Watch issuance will likely be needed before 01 UTC to address this potential and will replace WW 46. ..Moore/Bunting.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 34088367 33678355 33148359 32438373 31658400 31238418 30748454 30378489 30108516 29968534 29928558 30028580 30178592 30238609 30298633 30318658 30278684 30288700 30308713 30358741 30518757 30798758 31338745 32028710 32818669 33388641 33878616 34188598 34428558 34508449 34408400 34088367 Read more

MD 0214 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 47...48... FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...48... Valid 152321Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47, 48 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and severe gusts continues across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection across north-central AL has struggled to maintain intensity as it migrates into a deeply saturated, rain cooled environment. Recent surface observations depict a rather pronounced surface warm front extending across northern AL that delineates the northern extent of appreciable surface-based buoyancy. Despite the thermodynamic challenges, the low to mid-level theta-e axis remains in place across north-central AL. Strong isentropic ascent within this regime continues to support very strongly veered hodographs within the lowest few kilometers, exemplified by KBMX and KHTX VWP observations featuring 0-1 km SRH on the order of 400-500 m2/s2. Additionally, GOES IR imagery and lightning data have shown occasional updraft pulses within this warm advection regime and embedded supercell structures within a broken line of storms across eastern Middle TN which hint that buoyancy remains adequate for at least transient deep convection. Recent WoFS guidance appears to support this idea with some signal for low-level helicity tracks and severe gust potential focused across northeast AL into eastern/southeastern TN between 23-02 UTC. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 36448458 36358426 36238405 36008403 35768410 35398424 34828464 34328519 33988567 33828612 33788666 33788710 33898744 34098791 34288816 34648816 34758804 34888784 34908761 34888726 34878657 34928619 35038590 35248565 35548543 35928525 36378488 36448458 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more