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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are possible on D4 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. ...D3-D4 Monday/Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepening on D3 Monday - D4 Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. This will enhance lee troughing and encourage surface low development by Tuesday afternoon. Some expansion north and eastward was given to the previous D4 70 percent Critical probabilities for D3 - Monday into the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into southern Kansas to account for latest trends in forecast guidance. Winds look to be maximized Tuesday afternoon, where Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last 24-48 hours and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. The 40 percent delineation was stretched further eastward into western/central Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how far east the dryline will mix D4 - Tuesday afternoon, with forecasts from the ECMWF suggesting the dryline will shift into central Oklahoma bringing Critical conditions further east and solutions from the GFS/NAM suggesting the dryline may remain further west. For now, have gone with a conservative mix of the three solutions in extending 40 percent probabilities eastward. This will be monitored closely in upcoming forecasts. 70 percent probabilities were expanded northward into far eastern Colorado and western Kansas and also further east into north central Texas. ...D5-D7 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D5 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D6/Thursday into D7/Friday. 40 percent probability was added on D7 - Friday to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. With some uncertainty on the exact placement of the surface low feature, a 40 percent was appropriate for now. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more